Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock seems to be cyclical, so when you buy is important. It is off its recent high and is testing as cheap. It is a small cap and the analyst on Stock Chase is right, it is missing its estimates, so that could be why it is cheap. Caution is probably recommended. I plan to keep this stock, but I did buy it with my fooling around money.
I own this stock of Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF). I read about it in Money Sense article of 15 Stocks to help investors ride market swings by Michael Pe on Mar 4, 2018 . They were an envelope company, but are diversifying into packaging. I investigated this stock for buying for my TFSA.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for almost 6 years. I have made a total return of 10.31% with 4.36% from capital gains and 5.95% from dividends. The company had a loss last year because of Asset Impairment charges in 2024. Asset Impairment was a lot less in 2025 so they had a profit with less Revenue. I also noticed that in 2024 the Lease Liabilities were at $40.2M with Right of Use Assets at 41.4M and so quite close, however, in 2025 the Lease Liabilities is at $95.4M with Right of Use Assets at $60M. The sold some property and then leased it back.
Last year the company paid a special $0.50 a share special dividend. See the announcement from Supremex at Globe and Mail. Note that the company also paid off a large part of their Long Term Debt and decreased it by 99%.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,002.99 you would have bought 26 shares at $4.99 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $453.26 in dividends. The stock would be worth $737.67. Your total return would have been $1,190.93. This would be a total return of 2.06% per year with 3.03% from capital loss and 5.08% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.99 | $1,002.99 | 201 | 10 | $453.26 | $737.67 | $1,190.93 |
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.51%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4%) at 3.09% and 4.54%. The historical median dividend yield is good at 6.46%. (This is because this company used to be an income trust company which generally have quite high dividend yields.) The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 9% per year over the past 5 years. The dividends have gone up and down and the only reason the growth is 9% for the past 5 years is because of the 17.7% dividend increase in 2025.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently high, but expected to be good this year. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 142% with 5 year coverage good at 49%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is far too high at 206% with 5 year coverage high at 55%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is far too high at 119% with 5 year coverage good at 19%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is far too high at 135% with 5 year coverage good at 21%. DPRs are expected to good in 2026 with EPS and AEPS ratios a round 28%.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 142.86% | 48.59% |
| AEPS | 205.88% | 54.55% |
| CFPS | 119.20% | 19.29% |
| FCF | 135.09% | 21.14% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.00 and currently at 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.68 and 1.68 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.75 and 1.75 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.33 and 1.33 and currently at 2.33 and 1.33.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Intang/GW | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| Liquidity | 1.68 | 1.68 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.55 | 1.94 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Leverage | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.33 | 1.33 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 9.00% | 19.66% | 12.46% | 7.20% |
| 2015 | 10 | 0.00% | 2.06% | -3.03% | 5.08% |
| 2010 | 15 | 1.50% | 9.18% | 2.84% | 6.33% |
| 2006 | 19 | -8.79% | 1.23% | -4.31% | 5.54% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 3.19, 4.01 and 5.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.78, 7.50 and 9.32. The corresponding historical ratios are 4.95, 7.10 and 9.32. The current P/E Ratio is 5.04 based on a stock price of $3.63 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.72. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.07, 7.99 and 9.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.36, 8.26 and 9.80. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.07, 7.49 and 9.62. The current P/E Ratio is 5.04 based on a stock price of $3.63 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $0.72. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The real difference between the AEPS and EPS, is all the AEPS values are positive and some EPS ratios are negative (that is earnings losses).
I get a Graham Price of $8.48. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.46, 0.63 and 0.82. The current ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $3.63. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.00. The current ratio is 0.82 based on a stock price of $3.63, Book Value of $108.2M, and Book Value per Share of $0.84. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.22. The current ratio is 4.27 based on Cash Flow per Share for the last 12 months of $0.85, Cash Flow of $20.7M and a stock price of $3.63. The current ratio is 1% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.46%. The current dividend yield is 5.51% based on a stock price of $3.63 and dividends of $0.20. The current dividend yield is 15% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The problem with this test is that this company used to be an income trust and therefore started with very high dividend yields.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.54%. The current dividend yield is 5.51% based on a stock price of $3.63 and dividends of $0.20. The current dividend yield is 21% above the 10 yar median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.43. The current P/S Ratio is 0.33 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $270.8M, Revenue per Share of $11.10 and a stock price of $3.63. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The 10 year dividend yield test is saying this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the rest of the testing is saying the same thing.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $5.10 with a high of $5.25 and a low of $5.05 (from Alpha Spread). The Market Screener says the 12 month stock price is $5.00 with a high and low of $5.00. The 12 month stock price consensus of $5.00 implies a total return of 43.25% with 37.74% from capital gains and 5.51% from dividends based on a current stock price of $3.63.
There is not much on Stock Chase for this stock. An entry for 2024 says Do Not Buy because the company missed some estimate. There are more positive entries in 2016. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks buying this stock is an incredible deal. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says it is a cheap but excellent dividend stock to buy. The company put out a press release via Globe Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025 results.
Guru Focus News via Yahoo Finance gives the positive and negative points for this company. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talk about this stock as a penny stock to watch. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and says that they are disappointed in lack of growth in earnings. They have 4 warnings of earnings have declined by 22.2% per year over past 5 years; does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$87M); large one-off items impacting financial results; and unstable dividend track record.
Supremex Inc is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of envelopes and is a growing provider of paper-based packaging solutions and specialty products. The majority of its revenue is derived from its business in Canada. Its web site is here Supremex Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (TSX-AD.UN, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more on Monday, April 27, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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