Monday, January 26, 2026

Enghouse Systems Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as relatively cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally too high. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Enghouse Systems Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company hit of stock price of $66.11 in 2020 and it has been declining since and now is down some 72%. The thing is that as a Tech stock, this stock used to have high ratios. The stock ratios have fallen a lot further than say Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. Analyst expect the company to do better in 2026, but I do understand their Hold rating. Google AI says a post-pandemic slump in demand for its video/remote work tools is one reason for the recent decline. That is interesting. The stock price is cheap, but just because a stock is cheap does not make it a good buy.

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Revenue has gone down in 2025 as well as earnings. I see expenses of Direct Costs and Operation Expenses ratio is up. The 10 year expense ratio median is 0.72 and 5 year median is 0.73. In 2025 that ratio is 0.77. I also noticed that the Revenue estimates are lower than last year. Last year the estimates for 2026 and 2027 were $561M and $600M. This year, the Revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 are $506M and $538M.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2025 and expected growth over this year. You can see that 5 year growth is down except for dividends.

Yr Item Tot. Gwth Per Year Gwth Coverage
5 Revenue Growth -0.97% -0.20% 0.14% <-12 mths
5 EPS Growth -24.29% -5.41% -2.24% <-12 mths
5 Net Income Growth -25.28% -5.66% -0.27% <-12 mths
5 Cash Flow Growth -21.45% -4.71%
5 Dividend Growth 128.57% 17.98% 7.14% <-12 mths
5 Stock Price Growth -68.52% -20.64% -10.57% <-12 mths
10 Revenue Growth 78.61% 5.97% 1.43% <-this year
10 EPS Growth 129.06% 8.64% 12.54% <-this year
10 Net Income Growth 134.38% 8.89% 15.15% <-this year
10 Cash Flow Growth 161.58% 10.09%
10 Dividend Growth 409.09% 17.67% 10.71% <-this year
10 Stock Price Growth -43.27% -5.51% 54.97% <-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,003.59 you would have bought 27 shares at $37.17 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $201.42 in dividends. The stock would be worth $549.72. Your total return would have been $751.14 per year. This would be a total loss of 3.11% per year with 5.84% from capital loss and 2.73% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$37.17 $1,003.59 27 10 $201.42 $549.72 $751.14

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.18%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.89, 1.10% and 1.36%. The dividend increases are good (above 15% per year) at 18% per year over the past 5 years. Note that the low dividend yield is more typical of a Tech stock than the present good dividend yield.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally too high. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 84% with 5 year coverage at 76%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is fine at 39% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 60% with 5 year coverage at 56%. This is a tech stock and their DPRs were better for a Tech stock in the 30% range. There is a trade off between using money for dividends and reinvesting in the company. That is why too high a percentage of earnings going to dividends rather than reinvesting in the company is not good.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 83.58% 75.80%
CFPS 39.08% 41.10%
FCF 59.92% 55.54%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.00 and currently at 0.00. The total long term debt to Market Cap ratio is good at 0.03 and 0.03 currently. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.71 and 1.71 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 3.46 and 3.46 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.41 and 0.41 and currently at 1.41 and 0.41.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.00 0.00
T. Lg Term R 0.03 0.03
Intang/GW 0.38 0.41
Liquidity 1.71 1.71
Liq. + CF 2.04 2.02
Debt Ratio 3.46 3.46
Leverage 1.41 1.41
D/E Ratio 0.41 0.41


The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2020 5 17.98% -17.05% -19.87% 2.83%
2015 10 17.67% -3.11% -5.84% 2.73%
2010 15 20.30% 15.60% 11.01% 4.59%
2005 20 20.07% 11.47% 8.47% 3.00%
2000 25 11.26% 8.88% 2.38%
1995 30 11.21% 9.23% 1.98%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.60, 20.05 and 24.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 22.86, 31.37 and 37.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.72, 22.48 and 28.52. The current ratio is 12.34 based on a stock price of $18.61 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.51. This ratio is low and below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $19.43. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.05, 2.53 and 3.23. The current ratio is 0.96 based on a stock price of $18.61. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.87. The current P/B Ratio is 1.67 based on a Book Value of $609.5M, Book Value per of 11.13 and a stock price of $18.61. The current ratio is 66% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $11.22. This implies a ratio of 1.66 based on a stock price of $18.61 and a Book Value of $614.3M. This ratio is 66% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 19.92. The current ratio is 7.72 based on Cash Flow of $132M for the last 12 months, Cash Flow per Share of $2.41 and a stock price of $18.61. The current ratio is 61% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.35%. The current dividend yield is 6.45% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $18.61. The current dividend yield is 324% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.10%. The current dividend yield is 6.45% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $18.61. The current dividend yield is 485% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.29. The current ratio is 2.01 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $506M, Revenue per Share of $9.24 and a stock price of $18.61. The current ratio is 62% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Also, all the other tests say the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (4). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $22.00 with a high of $24.00 and a low of $20.00. The consensus stock price of $22.00 implies a total return of $24.66% with 18.22% from capital gains and 6.45% from dividends based on a current stock price of $18.61.

All the recommendations in 2025 on Stock Chase are Sell or Do Not Buy. One sell said that Software companies being taken over by AI and it will be a challenge to grow business going forward. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says to buy as the stock is down 75% from its high and has a good dividend. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says that Enghouse Systems is one of Canada’s quietest long-term tech compounders, building its business through disciplined acquisitions and steady recurring revenue. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter results for 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. It does not like the fact that earnings are declining and that they are paying too much of earnings in dividends.

Enghouse Systems Ltd is a Canada-based provider of software and services to a variety of end markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments, namely, the Interactive Management Group (IMG) and the Asset Management Group (AMG). The firm has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, excluding Scandinavia, Germany, Asia-Pacific, and other regions, with maximum revenue from the USA. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 28, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Investing .... learn more on Tuesday, January 27, 2026 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, January 23, 2026

Transcontinental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth has stalled. See my spreadsheet on Transcontinental Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I will continue to hold my shares in this company and wait and see what happens next. I do not generally sell companies just because they are overpriced. I think that since they are making changes to the company, it rises the risk level. It also seems overpriced currently.

I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). This stock was a dividend growth stock when I bought it in 2015. It is was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index in 2015. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but was recovering but then hit another low in 2019 and its recovery is uneven.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the stock price went up in December. This was because the company sold its packaging business and will pay a special dividend to shareholders. They will now focus on their Retail Services and Printing and Educational Publishing businesses. See their announcement on their site. This is not the first time for the company to reinvent itself, but it has been in business since 1976.

Most the officers and directors I follow, including CEO and Chairman have not changed the number of shares that they own since 2023.

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,001.08 you would have bought 26 shares at $17.26 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $557.09 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,317.76. Your total return would have been $1,874.85. This would be a total return of 7.56% per year with 2.79% from capital gain and 4.77% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$17.26 $1,001.08 58 10 $557.09 $1,317.76 $1,874.85

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth has stalled. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.91%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are all moderate at 4.98%, 4.79% and 2.58%. the dividend yields jumped form under 2% to over 3% in 2009. It has been in the moderate range since, but in some years, it has been over 5%. The dividend increases stopped in 2020, although even before that dividend increases have varied a lot and some years there were none. Over the past 32 years, the dividends have increased 22 times and declined 1 time.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 44% with 5 year coverage too high at 73%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 34% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 65% with 5 year coverage at 46%. I have two FCF for 2025 of $254.70 and $245.60 and I am using the latter on.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 44.12% 72.66%
AEPS 34.75% 39.32%
CFPS 17.37% 21.90%
FCF 64.74% 45.53%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.25 and currently at 0.22. The Intangible and Goodwill Ratios is getting quite high at .92 and currently somewhat better currently at 0.78. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.29 and 1.29 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.68 and currently a little low at 1.49. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.34 and 2.34 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.74 and 0.74 and currently at 1.74 and 0.74.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.25 0.22
Intang/GW 0.92 0.78
Liquidity 1.29 1.29
Liq. + CF 1.68 1.49
Debt Ratio 2.34 2.34
Leverage 1.74 1.74
D/E Ratio 0.74 0.74

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2020 5 0.11% 7.10% 2.07% 5.04%
2015 10 3.00% 7.56% 2.79% 4.77%
2010 15 0.48% 7.03% 2.37% 4.67%
2005 20 7.55% 4.24% 0.90% 3.34%
2000 25 9.19% 7.71% 4.01% 3.70%
1995 30 9.45% 8.36% 4.92% 3.44%
1990 35 8.31% 12.82% 8.29% 4.53%
1988 37 9.86% 6.55% 3.32%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.05, 11.08, and 13.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.06, 9.72 and 11.66. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.12, 12.63 and 14.69. The current ratio is 19.18 based on EPS estimate for 2026 of $1.20 and a stock price of $23.01. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. 19.18 is a rather high P/E Ratio for this type of company.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.34, 7.34 and 8.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.35, 7.40 and 8.46. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.17, 10.08 and 12.12. The current ratio is 19.18 based on AEPS estimate for 2026 of $1.20 and a stock price of $23.01. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $24.83. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.45, 0.55 and 0.67. The current ratio is 0.93 based on a stock price of $23.01. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.88. The current ratio is 1.01 based on a Book Value of $1912.9M, Book Value per Share of $22.88 and a stock price $23.01. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.90. The current ratio is 8.85 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $2.60 and a stock price of $23.01. The current ratio is 81% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.58%. The current ratio is 3.91% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $23.01. The current dividend yield is 52% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Note that this test does not work well when dividends are flat.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.79%. The current ratio is 3.91% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $23.01. The current dividend yield is 18% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Note that this test does not work well when dividends are flat.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.55. The current P/S Ratio is 1.69 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $1,141M, Revenue per Share of $13.65 and a stock price of $23.01. The current ratio is 204% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. R

esults of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The Dividend Yield tests are saying it might be reasonable, but these are not good tests when the dividends are flat. Dividends go from growing to flat for a reason. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is expensive. Most of the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.14 with a high of $29.00 and low of $24.00. The consensus 12 month stock price of $27.14 implies a total return of 21.86% with 17.95% from capital gains and 3.91% from dividends based on a current stock price of $23.01.

Analysts from 2023 to present have on Stock Chase Sell recommendations. What is interesting is that the stock price on this stock has risen from October 2023 to the present and it at a current high. Kay Ng on Motley Fool says this is a popular stock to buy. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says to buy this stock if you are looking for a lifetime of dividend income. The company put out a press release via Globe Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and its dividend payments. Simply Wall Street has one warning out on this stock of Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 33.6% per year for the next 3 years.

Transcontinental Inc operates in flexible packaging, retail marketing services, printing, and French-language educational publishing across Canada, the United States, Latin America, and the United Kingdom. Although note that the company has just sold its packaging business. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more on Monday, January 26, 2026 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Bank. Debt Ratios are good. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? What is see is that the stock price is growing faster than EPS. EPS is growing faster than Revenue. Neither is sustainable. Banks have been a good investment for me. Finance is where the money is. I do not have this bank. Canadian banks have delivered over the long term my requirement of 8% per year in capital gains and dividends. They all seem overpriced at this point in time. I would not sell, but neither would I buy. This bank is testing as relatively expensive.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). This was the only major Canadian Bank I was not following. I thought I should so I started to track this stock in 2017.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has also take off this year and reached an all time high. This stock was up 37% in 2025 after rising 43% in 2024. The increase in the stock price seems out of line with other years. The capital gain for the last 5 years is 18% per year. The capital gain for the last 10 years is now 10% per year. For other long term periods, the capital gain is 6% to 8% per year. See the paragraph below on Total Return per Year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,003.09 you would have bought 22 shares at $45.60 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $669.13 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,813.14. Your total return would have been $3,482.27. This would be a total return of 14.86% per year with 10.58% from capital gain and 4.30% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$45.60 $1,003.09 22 10 $669.13 $2,813.14 $3,482.27

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.41%. The 5 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.66% and 4.61%. The 10 year median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.03%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 2.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was good (8% to 14% per year) at 10.31%. This increase occurred in 2025. This bank seems to only increase its dividends once a year. Most other banks do a couple to several a year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 45% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 45% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 38% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 34% with 5 year coverage at 17%. There is only one FCF value for 2025.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 45.27% 49.43%
AEPS 45.06% 46.39%
CFPS 38.34% 41.44%
FCF 34.35% 16.76%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is high at 7.50 and currently at 6.82. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2025 which is good at 0.79 and currently at 0.79 because this is a more important ratio for a financial. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.79 and 2.79 currently. However, this is not an important ratio for a bank. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is fine for a bank at 1.06 and 1.06 currently. The Leverage Ratio for 2025 is good at 4.3% and currently at 4.3%.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A 0.79 0.79
Lg Term R 7.50 6.82
Intang/GW 0.08 0.07
Liquidity 2.79 2.79
Liq. + CF 3.44 3.42
Debt Ratio 1.06 1.06
Leverage Bk 4.3% 4.3%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 42 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2020 5 5.92% 22.60% 18.01% 4.58%
2015 10 6.16% 14.86% 10.56% 4.30%
2010 15 5.49% 11.92% 8.01% 3.91%
2005 20 5.50% 9.56% 6.08% 3.48%
2000 25 7.44% 10.68% 6.94% 3.74%
1995 30 8.15% 13.50% 8.71% 4.79%
1990 35 7.30% 13.41% 8.73% 4.68%
1985 40 6.99% 12.51% 8.19% 4.32%
1983 42 6.65% 13.60% 8.62% 4.98%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.69, 10.57 and 12.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.01, 9.75 and 11.48. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.23, 9.74 and 11.21. The current ratio is 13.42 based on a stock price of $125.41 and ESP estimate for 2026 of $9.35. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Since the ratios are rather consistent, it makes this a good test.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.17, 9.27 and 11.80. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.33, 9.23 and 10.63. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.19, 9.43 and 11.32. The current ratio is 13.17 based on a stock price of $125.41 and ESP estimate for 2026 of $9.52. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $115.55. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.76 and 0.89. The current ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $125.41. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.39. The current P/B ratio is 2.01 based on a Book Value of $57,560M, Book Value per Share of $62.33 and a stock price of $125.41. The current ratio is 44% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $66.27. This implies a ratio of 1.89 based on a stock price of $125.41 and a Book Value of $61,407M. This ratio is 36% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.99. The current ratio is 8.40 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 month of $13,838M, Cash Flow per share of $14.93 and a stock price of $125.41. The current ratio is 111% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this is generally not a good test for banks as the Cash Flow for banks fluctuates a lot. If you look for estimate for Cash Flow for banks, I have never found any.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.61%. The current dividend yield is 3.41% based on dividends of $4.28 and a stock price of $125.41. The current dividend yield is 26% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.03%. The current dividend yield is 3.41% based on dividends of $4.28 and a stock price of $125.41. The current dividend yield is 32% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.66. The current P/S Ratio is 3.78 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $30,759M, Revenue per Share of $33.20 and a stock price of $125.41. The current ratio is 42% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield testing is saying this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All my testing is pointing to a stock price that is relatively expensive. I would rate this a Hold.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (3), Hold (7) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $125.38 with a high of $138.00 and low of $100.00. The 12 month stock price of $125.38 implies total return 3.39% with a capital loss of $0.02% and dividends of 3.41% based on a current stock price of $125.41. I think that the consensus stock price points to a Hold rating, not a Buy Rating.

Some analyst on Stock Chase think this bank is still a buy, but others say partial sell because of its high valuation. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool think this bank is still a buy because of decades of delivering dividends and has a strong Canadian core. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says he is a big fan of big banks for their dividends and momentum. The bank put at a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and looks to see if it is under or overvalued or just right. Simply Wall Street lists no risks for this bank.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is Canada's fifth-largest bank. It operates four business segments: Canadian retail and business banking, Canadian commercial banking and wealth management, US commercial banking and wealth management, and capital markets. It services Canada and US. Its web site is here Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

The last stock I wrote about was about was National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more on Friday, January 23, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Wolf of Oakville .... learn more on Thursday, January 22, 2026 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, January 19, 2026

National Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Bank. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on National Bank of Canada.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a bank I do not own. Generally owning banks is good because they are dividend growth stocks as this one is. It has done well for its shareholders over time. I would think that now is not a good time to buy this bank if it is one you want to hold. The stock price is testing as relatively expensive.

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this bank is increasing their dividend growth. For example, the increase in dividends per year for the past 10 years is 8.6% per year and the dividend increases per year over the past 5 years is at 10.2% per year. This is always a good sign.

During the year, this bank bought Canadian Western Bank. See the Press Release.

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,007.75 you would have bought 26 shares at $40.31 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $777.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,315.25. Your total return would have been $5,092.25. This would be a total return of 19.66% per year with 15.66% from capital gain and 4.00% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$40.31 $1,007.75 25 10 $777.00 $4,315.25 $5,092.25

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.94%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are all moderate at 3.71%, 4.01% and 3.85%. The dividends are growing at a moderate rate (8% to 14% ranges) at 10.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 5.08%. Note that this bank increases the dividends more than once a year. The dividend increase between 2024 and 2025 is 7.55%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 45% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 40% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 38% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 51% with 5 year coverage at 71%. As with other stock lately, only WSJ is giving out a FCF value. Maybe people are losing interest in FCF.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 45.28% 38.79%
AEPS 40.43% 37.75%
CFPS 38.47% 35.54%
FCF 51.05% 70.55%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is ok for banks at 6.98 and currently at 6.29. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2025 which is good at 0.78 and currently at 0.78 because this is a more important ratio for a financial. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 8.47 and 8.47 currently. This is not an important ratio for banks. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is fine for a bank at 1.06 and 1.06 currently. The Leverage Ratio for 2025 is good at 4.5% and currently at 4.5%.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A 0.78 0.78
Lg Term R 6.98 6.29
Intang/GW 0.08 0.07
Liquidity 8.47 8.47
Liq. + CF 9.23 9.20
Debt Ratio 1.06 1.06
Leverage Bk 4.5% 4.4%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 39 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2020 5 10.17% 22.91% 19.23% 3.68%
2015 10 8.59% 19.66% 15.66% 4.00%
2010 15 9.07% 14.83% 11.38% 3.45%
2005 20 8.89% 12.08% 9.11% 2.97%
2000 25 10.57% 14.33% 10.80% 3.53%
1995 30 10.99% 16.42% 12.13% 4.29%
1990 35 7.20% 15.68% 11.36% 4.32%
1986 39 7.79% 11.17% 8.49% 2.68%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.68, 10.36 and 11.64. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.66, 10.16 and 11.64. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.65, 9.96 and 11.64. The current ratio is 14.14 based on a stock price of $168.54 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $11.92. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.65, 10.65 and 11.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.55, 9.75 and 11.24. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.67, 10.19 and 11.49. The current ratio is 13.96 based on a stock price of $168.54 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $12.07. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $145.82. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.87 and 0.99. The current ratio is 1.16 based on a stock price of $168.54. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current ratio is 2.15 based on Book Value of $30,619M, Book Value per Share of $78.30 and a stock price of $168.54. The current ratio is 26% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $83.79. This implies a ratio of 2.01 based on a stock price of $168.54 and a Book Value of $32,767M. This ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.13. The current ratio is 14.22 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $4,635M, Cash Flow per Share of $11.85 and a stock price of $168.54. The current ratio is 244% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.85%. The current dividend yield is 2.94% based on a stock price of $168.54 and dividends of $4.96. The current dividend yield is 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.01%. The current dividend yield is 2.94% based on a stock price of $168.54 and dividends of $4.96. The current dividend yield is 28% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.03. The current P/S Ratio is 4.39 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $15,020M, Revenue per Share of $38.41 and a stock price of $168.54. The current ratio is 45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield testing shows this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing. All the rest of the testing, with the exception of the P/B Ratio test is showing that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (2), Hold (7), and Underperform (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $170.57 with a high of $188.00 and low of $132.00. The consensus 12 month stock price of $170.57 implies a total return of 4.15% with 1.20% from capital gains and 2.94% from dividends based on a current stock price of $168.54.

Analysts on Stock Chase seem to like this bank and they also like the purchase of Canadian Western Bank. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says that NA may be the less obvious bank to own but it has a better yield and is faster growing. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says that this bank could be the best bank buy for 2026. This bank put out a press release via Newswire about their results for 2026.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They have a positive view of this bank and says this depends on Quebec remaining resilient and on the integration of Canadian Western Bank not increasing costs, reducing efficiency, or weakening credit quality more than analysts currently expect.

National Bank of Canada is the sixth-largest bank in Canada. It is a diversified financial services company, offering personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets services. The bank derives around 45% of its 2025 revenue from the province of Quebec, with additional operations in the rest of Canada and the United States. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Compounding Quality Newsletter.... learn more on Tuesday, January 20, 2026 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, January 16, 2026

Bank of Nova Scotia

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Bank. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is still reasonable but at the top of the reasonableness range. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally too high and need improving. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Nova Scotia.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This bank has generally done fine for its shareholders, but return has varied in the past and long term returns have not always been above 8%. Canadian banks are at present relatively expensive and at all time highs or close to all-time highs. This bank is not different. I would think that now is not the time to be buying Canadian Banks. The stock price for this bank looks relatively high. It is still showing as relatively reasonable, but it is above the 10 year median.

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. My son owns shares in this bank.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the officers I follow and the Chairman bought shares over the past year. This stock went up 31% over the past year. Note not as good as TD did, but still a good gain.

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,007.46 you would have bought 18 shares at $55.97 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $660.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,822.14. Your total return would have been $2,482.74. This would be a total return of 11.11% per year with 6.10% from capital gain and 5.01% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$55.97 $1,007.46 18 10 $660.60 $1,822.14 $2,482.74

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.31%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 4.26%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.91% and 5.18%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 3.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 3.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally too high and need improving. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 76% with 5 year coverage at 62%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 61% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is very high at 99% with 5 year high coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 58% with 5 year coverage good at 43%. (As with other stocks, only WSJ is giving a FCF value. Other sites have stopped doing this.)

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 76.19% 61.74%
AEPS 60.93% 56.78%
CFPS 98.75% 43.62%
FCF 57.93% 43.39%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is high at 8.50 and currently at 7.68. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2025 which is good at 0.72 and currently at 0.72 because this is a more important ratio for a bank. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.08 and 1.08 currently. However, this is not an important ratio for a bank. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good for a bank at 1.08 and 1.08 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 4.5% and currently at 4.5%.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A 0.72 0.72
Lg Term R 8.50 7.68
Intang/GW 0.14 0.13
Liquidity 1.08 1.08
Liq. + CF 1.08 1.08
Debt Ratio 1.06 1.06
Leverage Bk 4.5% 4.5%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 40 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2020 5 3.71% 13.13% 8.03% 5.10%
2015 10 4.73% 11.11% 6.10% 5.01%
2010 15 5.41% 8.08% 3.89% 4.19%
2005 20 6.11% 8.04% 4.01% 4.03%
2000 25 9.01% 11.14% 6.37% 4.77%
1995 30 9.15% 15.36% 9.09% 6.27%
1990 35 8.48% 18.26% 10.48% 7.78%
1985 40 8.42% 14.06% 8.73% 5.33%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.59, 11.10 and 12.58. The corresponding 10 year ratio 9.30, 10.94 and 12.55. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.14, 11.19 and 14.48. The current ratio is 12.91 based on a stock price $102.18 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $7.92. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.47, 9.91 and 11.34. The corresponding 10 year ratio 8.72, 10.23 and 11.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.10, 10.90 and 12.63. The current ratio is 12.74 based on a stock price $102.18 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $8.02. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $105.98. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 0.78 and 0.92. The current ratio is 0.96 based on a stock price of $102.18. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.40. The current ratio is 1.64 based on a Book Value of $76,927M, Book Value per Share of $62.24 and a stock price of $102.18. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $65.16. This implies a ratio of 1.57 with a stock price of $102.18 and a Book Value of $80,538M. This ratio is 12% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.05. The current ratio is 23.36 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $5,407M, Cash Flow per Share of $4.37 and a stock price of $102.18. The current ratio is 362% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this test is not a good one for banks as the cash flow for banks fluctuates a lot.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.26%. The current dividend yield is 4.31% based on a stock price of $102.18 and dividends of $4.40. The current dividend yield is 1.08% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.18%. The current dividend yield is 4.31% based on a stock price of $102.18 and dividends of $4.40. The current dividend yield is 17% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.74. The current P/S Ratio is 3.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $39,082M, Revenue per Share of $31.62 and a stock price of $102.18. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is still reasonable but at the top of the reasonableness range. The 10 year dividend yield test is considered currently to be better than the historical dividend yield test and the 10 year test says that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. The P/S Ratio test confirms the 10 year median dividend yield test. The test of the testing says either the stock price is reasonable but above the median or expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (1), Hold (8) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $101.20 with a high of $109.00 and low of $92.00. The current stock price consensus of $101.20 implies a total return of 3.35% with a capital loss of 0.96% and dividends of $3.35% based on a current stock price of $102.18. The Buy recommendation does not really line up with this 12 month total return. The total return lines up with the Underperform status.

Analyst on Stock Chase all not all positive about this bank, but feel that nothing much bad will happen. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool says to buy this bank for its passive income. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool reviews this bank and says it could be a good buy for your TFSA account. The company put out a press release about their fourth quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and thinks that there are several reasons to buy this bank even though it is not the largest of the big bank stocks. They think that the valuation is favourable and it has long term potential. They have one warning of significant insider selling over the past 3 months. I do not see this. Often not taking up options and insider selling is confused. In the past year the CEO, and an officer I follow plus the chairman have bought stock.

The Bank of Nova Scotia is a global financial services provider. The bank has four major business segments: Canadian banking, international banking, global wealth management, and global banking and markets. The bank's international operations span numerous countries and are more concentrated in the Latin America region. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more on Monday, January 19, 2026 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Toronto Dominion Bank

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Bank. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still in the reasonable range, but it is above the median. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Toronto Dominion Bank.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I like this bank. This is the bank I use for my chequing account and all my trading accounts. I also own shares in this bank. I would worry about buying it at this point as it seems rather expensive. I also wonder if the stock price might fall because the dividend increases in the last two years have been under 3%. I think that there is probably better stocks to buy at this point. It is testing on the expensive side.

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). This stock, as all banks, was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and the other dividend lists that I followed. When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this bank. I first purchased it in 2000 and then again in 2009 and 2017. I have made 13.57% per year with 9.69% from capital gains and 3.88% from dividends. Since a low in April 2025, the stock price has taken off climbing from $79.20 to $131.17, some 65.6%.

I noticed that this bank has a new chairman and that all 3 directors I was following are no longer directors. They also have a new CEO, but he was previously an officer of the company.

Also, you would think that determining Revenue would be easy. When I went to get Revenue estimates, each report was calculating Revenue differently and differently than on the statements. I could find how they calculated the revenue, but it was in the footnotes or the values used was found in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (but not listed as revenue). However, two sites or reports did come up with the same revenue value.

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,030.56 you would have bought 19 shares at $54.24 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $607.24 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,457.84. Your total return would have been $3,065.08. This would be a total return of 12.99% per year with 9.08% from capital gain and 3.91% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$54.24 $1,030.56 19 10 $607.24 $2,457.84 $3,065.08

If you had invested in this company in December 1975, for $1,000.00 you would have bought 1250 shares at $0.80 per share. In December 2025, after 50 years you would have received $66,114.94 in dividends. The stock would be worth $161,700.00. Your total return would have been $227,814.94. This would be a total return of 15.38% per year with 10.71% from capital gain and 4.67% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits. (Since I have the values, I thought it might be interesting to see what this stock has done over 50 years. But good companies and keep them.)

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$0.80 $1,000.00 1,250 50 $66,114.94 $161,700.00 $227,814.94

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.33%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate at 4.44%, 4.14% and 3.57%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 6.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 2.9%. This bank seems to increase their dividends only once a year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 50% with 5 year coverage good at 47%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 44%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is non-calculable due to a negative FCF with 5 year coverage good at 16.25%. Here again there is only one place to find FCF.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 36.33% 48.22%
AEPS 50.18% 46.60%
CFPS 32.80% 43.96%
FCF -184.30% 16.25%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is high at 6.51 and currently at 5.72. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2025 which is good at 0.84 and currently at 0.84 because this is a more important ratio for a bank. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.66 and 2.66 currently. However, this is not an important ratio for a bank. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good for a bank at 1.06 and 1.06 currently. The Leverage Ratio for 2025 are good at 4.6% and currently at 4.6%.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A 0.84 0.84
Lg Term R 6.51 5.72
Intang/GW 0.12 0.10
Liquidity 2.66 2.66
Liq. + CF 2.35 2.34
Debt Ratio 1.06 1.06
Leverage Bk 4.6% 4.6%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 50 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2020 5 6.19% 16.60% 12.46% 4.15%
2015 10 7.70% 12.99% 9.08% 3.91%
2010 15 8.59% 12.45% 8.68% 3.77%
2005 20 8.71% 10.82% 7.48% 3.34%
2000 25 9.25% 10.50% 7.40% 3.10%
1995 30 10.33% 15.54% 10.78% 4.77%
1990 35 9.25% 14.61% 10.32% 4.29%
1985 40 9.83% 13.47% 9.70% 3.77%
1980 45 10.00% 15.22% 10.56% 4.66%
1975 50 10.45% 15.38% 10.71% 4.67%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.25, 9.82 and 11.63. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.50, 11.62 and 12.74. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.50, 11.76 and 13.03. The current ratio is 14.54 based on a stock price of $129.65 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $9.82. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This would seem a good test as the P/E Ratios have been rather consistent over time.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.35, 10.62 and 11.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.50, 11.20 and 12.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.20, 11.52 and 12.89. The current ratio is 14.29 based on a stock price of $129.65 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $9.07. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $118.85. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.85 and 0.97. The current ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $129.65. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.47. The current ratio is 1.87 based on a Book Value of $116,939M, Book Value per Share of $69.22 and a stock price of $129.65. The current ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $71.35. This implies a ratio of 1.82 with a stock price of $129.65 and Book Value of $120,546M. This ratio is 24% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.63. The current cash flow is negative, so I cannot do any P/CF Ratio testing. In any event, this is not a good test for banks as the cash flow fluctuates a lot over the years.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.57%. The current dividend yield is 3.33% based on dividends of $4.32 and a stock price of $129.65. The current dividend yield is 7% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.14%. The current dividend yield is 3.33% based on dividends of $4.32 and a stock price of $129.65. The current dividend yield is 19.5% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.09. The current P/S Ratio is 3.43 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $63,883M, Revenue per Share of 37.81 and a stock price of $129.65. The current ratio is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still in the reasonable range, but it is above the median. Both the dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (3), Hold (4) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $128.67 with a high of $135.00 and low of $115.00. The consensus stock price of $128.67 implies a total return of $2.58% with a capital loss of $0.76% and dividend of $3.33% based on a current stock price of $129.65.

The most recent reviews on Stock Chase say that the stock is no longer an attractive at the current price. But some still think it is a Buy. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool reviews this stock and thinks it is at a reasonable valuation for purchase for your TFSA. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool thinks is the best big bank stock for your TFSA. This bank put out a Press Release about their 2025 fourth quarter results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says to buy this stock for its reliable dividend. They have one warning on this bank of Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.3% per year for the next 3 years. Vardah Fill on Insider Monkey says that National Bank turns more positive on TD bank by upgrading it to Outperform from Sector Perform.

Toronto-Dominion is one of Canada's two largest banks. TD Bank operates four business segments: Canadian personal and commercial banking, US retail banking, wealth management and insurance, and wholesale banking. It mainly operates in Canada and US. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more on Friday, January 16, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canada’s Stagnation.... learn more on Thursday, January 15, 2026 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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